Each time you see a new power, two key questions are: how many tanks you have? and what intend to do with them? When Wilhelmine Germany wanted to enter the league of great powers in the early twentieth century, one of his tools were the battleships. The more you have, the stronger would be more appropriate and would make it. The result was that the more armor, more and more distrusted Britain is snuggled up to France and Russia. Some in France and Britain realized that Hitler had taken the guise of lamb on the day they discovered that Nazi Germany was rearming. Now, at the dawn of the XXI century, the country whose weapons of concern is China.
On March 31, China published its White Paper national defense, that when it became a bestseller among defense analysts. It is the seventh edition of a publication that since 1998 is being launched on a biannual basis.
first thing to do in these documents is to present what is the status of the situation in which one has to unfold. The document begins by saying that is "peaceful and stable " and " the current trend towards peace, development and cooperation is irresistible. But international strategic competition and contradictions are intensifying global challenges are becoming more prominent and security threats are becoming more integrated, complex and volatile . "Please, somebody redefined the term" peaceful "and" stable. "
The security situation in Asia-Pacific is perceived as stable, with the development of common interests and the persistence of multilateralism, of which examples that stands out is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, established in the form of spit to the U.S. . Again, the editor of the paper shows that his concept of "stable" leaves much to be desired, he writes: " The security situation in Asia-Pacific region is becoming more intricate and volatile. "The specific problems identified are: the Korean Peninsula, Afghanistan, the disputes over the demarcation of territorial waters (no names mentioned, but it is an issue that China faces with half Asia), terrorism and separatism.
The White Paper also hints that the U.S. believes China will play the nose. He notes that " U.S. is strengthening its regional military alliances and increasing its involvement in regional security affairs ." The reading of this is that the U.S. is getting where he was not called. The appreciation China is interesting. Other countries, such as Singapore, instead regarded with concern that the U.S. is disengaging from Asia.
For all the fear that China's rise raises, the White Paper sets priorities that are essentially defensive: 1) peaceful development of relations with Taiwan. The movement for Taiwan independence is seen as a separatist and a threat to the peaceful development of relations between China and Taiwan. The paper notes that " Further progress in the close relationships [referring to the strait that separates China from Taiwan] is still hampered by some complicating factors. "The U.S. is been called many things, but what they decried as "complicating factor" I love it, 2) Preserving the integrity of China, which is threatened by separatist movements in Xinjiang and Tibet; 3) The suspicion that China wakes up and has led to an increase external interference. This defensive approach and a little paranoia reminds me of the defunct USSR.
armed forces are set targets in line with perceived threats, and added one that I liked it, " Keep social harmony and stability." Assume some functions that suggest if not will have become an NGO development aid and another a little more ominous: " Assuming the maintenance of social stability as a whole as a critical task, the armed forces subject to resolution all subversive activities and sabotage by hostile forces, as well as terrorist activities ." While, yes, they will under the law and the dictates of government and imbued with the proper ideology, because the book also addresses the ideological education of soldiers. If someone were to organize a new Tiananmen happens, you know that army tanks will be there to stop it.
Like any rising power, China aims to have a brand new and modern armed forces. It wants above all mechanized and computerized. It also wants to improve their logistics, an area where they always had gaps. Slightly more worrying is that we also want to increase their outreach capacity, or whether they can make milk out of their neighborhood. It is interesting to think that Chinese ships operating in the Gulf of Aden and the coast of Somalia to combat piracy. The last time Chinese vessels penetrated so far from its shores was the beginning of the Ming dynasty in the fifteenth century. Something is changing.
China aims to achieve the same overlap between the defense industry and the civilian world that exists in America, so that advances in military technology is enjoyed by the civilian economy. The idea sounds brilliant, but to wait to discover what is the lobby of the defense industry.
Anticipating criticism, the White Paper says that the level of expenditure has been kept to a reasonable level. Defense spending has gone from 8'66% of state spending in 1998 to represent the 6'49% in 2009. Before welcomed because the participation of the defense in state spending has dropped, it must be remembered that in those 11 years China's economy has grown at over 8% annually, meaning that the 6'49% represents a much 8'66% higher than 1998. The amount is divided into almost equally between spending on personnel, maintenance and equipment. By comparison, the U.S. spends 20% of its budget on defense. Overall U.S. is the biggest spender on defense with 663,000 million dollars. China comes in second place with 99,000 million, up 15% of what the U.S. spends. If we compare the expenditure to GDP, we see that China spends on defense 2% of GDP. There are 49 countries in the world that spent in 2009 proportions of GDP higher than that of China. In other words, we must recognize that China's defense spending is restrained.
China has learned from past experience that a rising power that should not scare too. The final part White Paper is devoted to highlighting how peaceful and kind that is China. So, remember that since 1993 China has signed a treaty with India so as not to be castrated at the border, which ended in 1996 and 1997 Agreement on confidence-building measures and reduction of military presence on the border with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Russia and Tajikistan, which in 1998 signed a border agreement with Bhutan in which he said he was not the same thing happen to Tibet (well, it does not say so explicitly, but it is understood), which have border agreements with Russia, Mongolia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Burma and Vietnam. Splendid, but the point is that today day China gets more afraid of their neighbors in the water than on land.
The South China Sea is now a hotbed of territorial disputes. There are islands like the Spratleys that look like they were put there solely to the States of the region will cake for them. The White Paper points out that China respects scrupulously the Law of the Sea and remember the agreements it has with countries like USA, Vietnam and Japan. Reading between the lines, it is noted that these agreements are much less all-encompassing than those on land borders.
The White Paper includes all multilateral security initiatives in which it participates China: Shanghai Cooperation Organization , ARF, ASEAN + 1, ASEAN + 3, ASEAN Plus Defense Minister's meeting (ADMM +), Security and Defence Dialogue China-ASEAN Dialogue Shangri-La. I suspect that this proliferation of security and defense initiatives intended to have military establishments of the countries so busy, nobody has time to prepare for war.
In short, this is a balanced and sensible document that looks like a bikini: it reveals a lot, but we hide the details that most interest us.
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