be the ruler in a dictatorship is a bit like riding a tiger. Keep riding his hard hump, but can be done. The really hard part is getting out of it.
The former Burmese dictator Ne Win experienced the truth in their own flesh. When in the summer of 1988 the Burmese people took to the streets to protest against the military dictatorship, Ne Win resigned from their positions as President of Burma and Chairman of the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP). The impression is that its removal was purely cosmetic, to try to appease the protesters, and in fact continued to manage the reins of power from the shadows. In fact many think it was Ne Win who orchestrated the bloody crackdown in September 1988 when the army fired indiscriminately at protesters.
Given the secrecy with which the Burmese generals work, it is difficult to know when the power of Ne Win began to fade. By the late 90's, it was clear that sending less. His advanced age and the rise of Than Shwe, who never stopped to accumulate power, were decisive.
In March 2002 an obscure incident took place when authorities announced they had uncovered a plot to overthrow Board, organized by the son of Ne Win, Aye Zaw Win. We found that the conspirators had a dangerous arsenal consists of 27 rubber batons, two minesweepers and a pistol and had sought the assistance of an astrologer and an expert on black magic. Immediately Ne Win and his daughter Sandar Win, wife of Aye Zaw Win was placed under house arrest. In September of that year, Aye Zaw Win and his three sons were sentenced to death by hanging for the crime of high treason. The sentence was never applied, but since 2002, Aye Zaw Win and his sons are in Insein prison. Ne Win died in December 2002. The official press release just published a brief obituary and his funeral took place in privacy.
was never entirely clear what had been behind the pantomime of the conspiracy. There was talk of conflicts of business interests. Also said that Than Shwe had wanted to send a message to potential rivals within the military junta, which may seek to wrap up the mantle of Ne Win. In any case, Than Shwe made it clear that a dictator is always dangerous to remain so. And now in 2011, Time has come to apply the lesson.
A reading of recent political changes in Burma Than Shwe would be preparing his retirement and making sure that neither he nor his family I will do the same thing he did to Ne Win and his family. I think there are other factors at play, but that is not negligible and it helps explain some things.
Than Shwe meets this year 78, 16 more than the Burmese media. Interestingly, in nearly 20 years that has been most il capo di tutti capi has not bothered to prepare a successor. At different times analysts have thought that this or that general was particularly close to Than Shwe and can you were preparing for the succession, but each time those expectations were dashed. Among the generals who have sounded as potential successors include Maung Aye, Shwe Mann and Thura Myint Swe. I think all the speculation about a successor or another are free. Than Shwe does not really want to appoint a successor. Prefer to leave the country forward to a collective leadership, so that not a single general to accumulate all the power, as has happened with him and, above all, that generally take with your family.
The system created by the 2008 Constitution, which now takes its first steps, is complex and seems designed for two things: that the military did not lose control of the situation and no one can exercise absolute power. It is a system of checks and balances, but Montesquieu or democracy.
To begin creating the Defense Council and National Security, with which the President must "coordinate" on a number of serious matters, such as breaking diplomatic relations with a third country or a state of emergency. The Constitution is not clear how one must understand the word "coordinated." You may want to say that the President should give his heels and stay at attention.
The Council of National Security and Defense is composed of the President, Vice President, Speaker National Assembly, the Speaker of the Assembly of Nationalities, the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, Deputy Commander in Chief Armed Forces, Minister of Defence, the Minister EAA, the Minister of Interior and Minister of Frontier Affairs. This list does not lead to mislead and to suggest that the Commander in Chief is a mere primus inter pares, he appoints the deputy commander in chief and who introduced the President paths slates to choose from among them the Minister of Defence, Interior and Border Affairs. That is, the other ten members of the Council, four at least directly or indirectly owe their appointment.
In principle it would seem that the President is capitidisminuido against the commander in chief and it is true, but it is a dog that you have removed all the teeth. We have made some and can bite. The President is elected by an Electoral College Presidential. The parliamentarians from the armed forces make up a third of the Electoral College. Under present conditions in which the ruling USDP is composed of former military officers linked to the former military junta, Than Shwe had no problems when choosing who he wanted as President. But would a scenario in which two-thirds of the Presidential Electoral College decide to vote against the candidate of the military and were imposed.
The Constitution gives the President sweeping powers. He appoints the government, except in the case of the three ministries mentioned whose appointment by the President. The President is part of the main bodies State: Council of National Security and Defense, chaired, and the Finance Commission. Designates a series of charges, including members of the Election Commission or the Attorney General. Has broad powers to cesarlos, still requires the approval of Parliament. In contrast, the impeachment of the President is complicated and difficult to get majorities.
The Chairman is marked by its two Vice-Presidents, which he did not choose, but are elected by Parliament. In addition there is the joke that should allow Vice-President in charge of financial and budgetary matters of the Union and one of the states.
The feeling that I leave this system is as follows: the Commander in Chief is who has the last word, but on condition that it is a universally respected person and no one dares to cough. This condition is applied to Than Shwe. Than Shwe has also ensured that the position of Chairperson being Thein Sein, who is completely loyal, it is not known if lack of personality, interest or folly. Possibly by a combination of the three. The Vice Presidents are also people who can not be expected problems: General Tin Aung Myint Oo, who was the Prime Minister of the former military junta and Muak Sai Khan, a doctor with no political weight shan passing and there have got to show that the military is also concerned about ethnic minorities.
This system will run smoothly while alive Than Shwe, but I think a successor who lacks strength and the President will leave zappy, might run into problems. Enough to not have time to put sticks in the wheels to the family of Than Shwe.
Perhaps, after all, Than Shwe has found a way to get off the tiger.
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