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why send West (for now)? (4) Why send

The twentieth century was the century of the dominance of the West, but it will surely be century where it began its decline. Early twentieth century the level of social development of the West was 2.4 times higher than the East, in 2000 the proportion was only 1.6 times. If trends continue into the future, would move to East West in 2103 at the latest. In urban planning and city size, the East and is on par with the West. Analysts go on the date betting that China will overtake the U.S. and it seems that walked engaged in a war over who has the earliest date that happen. My bet is that before 2030 and no later than 2050. There are more questions about when East would overtake the West in military capabilities, technology information and energy capture. Morris does not set a date, but believes that since 2050, things will accelerate both the West can hardly maintain its leadership in these areas for much longer.

But perhaps the question of when to advance east to west is idle. Maybe globalization has blurred that distinction. Maybe we read the history of the last hundred years the history of how the West has expanded to the East and made it its periphery. East now enjoy the benefits of all the regions and prepares to return the favor. There is no East or West, but a unified world.

What will the world in 2103? If social development 900 points separate the Altamira caves of the atomic bomb, it is unthinkable that we can expect from a world that, extrapolating from historical data, would have exceeded 5,000 points for social development, more than double the current. Cities would have 140 million inhabitants, human brains could be linked to very powerful computers and access to all your data, we would have robots fighters of all sizes ... The futurist Ray Kurzweil has called the period ahead "Singularity": " ... a future period during which the pace of technological change is so rapid, its impact so deep (...) that the technology seem to be expanding at a rate of infinity." If current trends continue, Kurzweil predicts computers with the same data storage capacity of the human brain (apparently we are able to store 10 billion memories, but before congratuléis I remind you that half of those memories are painful and the other half is irrelevant), we will be able to produce maps of the human brain neuron to neuron (formidable, but really we would have a map so detailed Berlusconi's brain?). For the 2045 could have created a kind of human intelligence interconnected world and artificial intelligence, where the latter we would always win at chess. Humanity would evolve into something new, we would have broken the laws of biology.

Morris is not naive. No one who has fallen human beings are moved by greed, laziness and fear (yes, I know that sex is left out. One failure was to have) can blindly trust rosy forecasts. Twice in the first century and XIV, humanity found a roof, a roof as the kind of society that existed then could not break. To break we had to find the energy from coal, the steam engine and the industrial revolution. What if now we were to meet such a roof? What if we had come upon an ecological bottleneck that was inaccessible in our present state of social and technological development?

There is enough evidence to think that perhaps we are in a situation such. The industrial revolution that helped to break the ceiling had to development has led to current climate warming is expected to produce more hurricanes, more droughts, more irregular rainfall, a rise in sea level, etc. The worst thing is that everything is interconnected climate. We do not know at what point the changes may be irreversible, at what point can start a chain reaction that leads to catastrophic changes in climate.

Even if not catastrophic climate changes, we have some old back ailments. The first is hunger. With a growing population and land yields more uncertain because of climate change, we can meet soon with a serious food crisis. In 2008 when food prices rose disproportionately and had a mild foretaste of what might look like a food crisis. The U.S. National Intelligence Council estimates that by 2025 around 1,400 million people could suffer water shortages and / or food. The second is the uncontrolled migration. If we are concerned that the boats have stopped coming in recent years to prepare ourselves so that we can come up if a combination of famine, political instability climate change and lead the people in the South to try to emigrate en masse to the north. The Barbarian Invasions of the Roman Empire look like a joke in comparison. The third is the disease. The speed of communications is not only an advantage for travelers, also for epidemics. Furthermore, the degradation of ecosystems brings us into contact with new germs mutate eager to address the degradation of their environment. Once I talked to one who worked for the WHO and made my hair like hooks when I described a scenario, it is not impossible, in which the avian flu virus mutated and learned to spread from human to human. Cases of human to human transmission has been in Indonesia and northern Vietnam, but it seems the virus has not yet developed fully this possibility. Finally, we have the risk of failed states. It was not the same as Attila died in the V century and soon the Huns did not know what to make nuclear-armed Pakistan to break down. Another problem with failed states. If recent events in the Arab world have made oil prices rise, what would not happen if things were over and, for example, Libya and Yemen from becoming failed states (not impossible)?

Morris believes that we're in a race between the Singularity, which could access and green roof that threatens us. It depends on us, our greed, our laziness and our fear, whoever wins. I bet some to who wins?

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Earth Day

Today I bring you an entry / story that I found very interesting. Lara, the community manager of Kiehl's, has been contacted in response to a request for information I did in store last week on some products.

commitment to the environment of Kiehl's Since 1851

In line with the historic commitment the firm with the environment and inspired by the growing demand of our customers in recent years, Kiehl's remains committed to worldwide:

· ; Minimize the use of packaging. Kiehl's has always believed in the packaging of low cost, supporting the importance of ingredients and packaging materials do not.

· Maximizing the use of post-consumer recycled material. Kiehl's is offering all customers the formulations for hair care and skin packaging using 100% PCR.

· The bottles returned to the shops for recycling will be reused.

· Continuing with the support of the environment, "Recycle and be rewarded "is presented as a recycling program worldwide in almost 100 stores. The recycling of all containers was recently installed in most Kiehl's stores to offer local communities the possibility of a safe and environmentally responsible. These permanent units also serve as information centers, educating our clients about the local green programs and events to encourage greater responsibility for recycling of plastic packaging and the environment.

Case is Kiehl's has launched its "Recycle and be rewarded," an initiative to encourage the recycling of empty containers as they approach the next Earth Day (April 22). Boutiques in all containers will be collected and each was given a series of Kiehl's products. The recycling campaign will be active beginning the month of April.

collection of empty containers is valid from May 1 to April 30, 2011 in all boutiques. Each submission will his award on the basis of packaging.

2 packs = 1 lip balm.

4 bottles = 1 shower gel.

6 bottles = 1 and 1 shower gel travel size.

In this line, and to continue their commitment, Kiehl's has partnered with Return Textiles, a manufacturer of materials that respect the environment and innovation Bionic ® technology Yarn (fiber and eco-textiles), and the musician and producer Pharrell Williams, to encourage not only to recycle the packaging, but also to think about the different possibilities that can work together to recycle waste. This April, the company presents the following initiatives in all its boutiques in the world.

1. ecological Gowns: The iconic gown Kiehl's, a symbol that recalls the beginning of the firm as pharmacy in New York and used by their representatives since the beginning, there will from now on fibers and threads made of plastic bottles (Bionic Yarn), from organic farms. Made from 10 plastic bottles, the next generation of scrubs has the same look of high quality cotton gown classic original until now used Kiehls. The recycled bottles by Kiehl's will be used for future development of gowns for representatives in their boutiques and other functional elements.

2. Stock green "TOTE BAG": To create awareness about the importance of minimizing waste and maximizing recycling efforts, Kiehl's will offer customers a Limited Edition of The Shopping Bag Kiehl's (Eco-Tote). Designed exclusively for Kiehl's by Pharrell Williams, the bag is made from spun fibers. All customers participating in the initiative and be rewarded Recycles "recycling their cans, bottles and empty tubes in their boutiques Kiehl's since April through June, will be eligible for your handbag, courtesy of Kiehl's. For every 6 empty cans of Kiehl's customers recycle at the boutique will be presented with the Tote Bag .

What do you think of this initiative? To me, I found very interesting, but I'm a little sad that just confined to one month per year.

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West (for now)? (3) Why send

The score created by Morris in the 541 East to the West ahead for the first time. Why East emerged from the crisis at the beginning of our era long before the West? China rediscovered its unity in the late VI with the brilliant T'ang empire. West as she got was the Carolingian Renaissance, modest compared to the T'ang and also did not cover the entire West. Morris is the answer for: geography. From the third century AD had farmers have begun to exploit the regions south of the Yangtze from the sixth century and began to introduce new agricultural techniques that increased yields. China was an advantage that the West had not: in the north still had an organized state, the Sui dynasty, whose economic base was ruined, in the south had weak political parties and a thriving economy. The Emperor Wendi realized that the south was crying out and conquer who heeded the call, reuniting China and laying the foundations of the Renaissance T'ang. In the West a little before Justinian wanted to do something similar and re-establish the Roman Empire. Failed for many reasons: the situation on its borders was more complicated with the Sassanid Persians in the east and the newly arrived Slavs in the north, which was faced with Wendi, anywhere in the Mediterranean world had an economic base so rosy as that existed south of the Yangtze, to sustain imperial renaissance, and to finish the last years of his reign were stained by epidemics.

early ninth century, the West and East again in trouble. The Carolingian Renaissance was losing steam and the relative economic and social recovery that brought Charlemagne, attracted new invaders: the Vikings and the Magyars. On the other hand, the emergence of Islam had made the Mediterranean ceased to be a sea that linked and facilitate trade, to become a border between two hostile civilizations. In China, the mid-eighth century T'ang dynasty was in crisis and beyond would only limp to its sad end in the tenth century

And then, the great engine of history is to Morris became climate change: temperatures rose between 900 and 1300 around a level and rainfall fell 10%. The change was a relief for Europe and a nightmare for the Muslim world, which became warmer and drier and began to lose the advantage he had taken over the Christian West (Warning: For Morris, the Muslim world is still part of the West it comes from the same original nucleus). Europe began to plow land and develop new agricultural techniques and returned to grow. In Song Dynasty China restored things more or less in 960.

Universal History was about to overturn in the twelfth century when the Chinese were, according to Morris, in a trice to invent the industrial revolution had reached a level social development similar to that achieved by the Romans in their heyday. In the eleventh century Chinese laborers had invented a winder and later pedal invented one that could use animal power or water. At the same time Chinese blacksmiths of the city of Kaifeng, which was the capital of the empire, began to use coal to the wood shortage. The industrial revolution in England just started with the application of machines in the textile industry and the use of coal as an energy source. Only someone lacking in China invented the steam engine. But instead of the steam engine, which came to China in the twelfth century were the Jurchen barbarians. In 1127 Kaifeng fell to the Jurchen and the rule of the Song was restricted to the Yangtze valley. Still, conditions were so that in the thirteenth century Southern Song had invented the industrial revolution. Unfortunately, Genghis Khan was born came early thirteenth century and the Song and technological advances went to hell with the Mongol conquest and epidemics and famine that accompanied it.

A mid-fourteenth century saw the terrible plague of the Black Death, which may kill one-third to one half of the population of the West and also wreaked havoc East. In addition coincided with that old friend of Morris, climate change. At about that time is over heating initiated at 900 and there was a period that has been called the Little Ice Age, with that name does not need to explain what was. But for the fourteenth century East and West were older, more developed technologies available and were better able to withstand shocks. By the early fifteenth century, both had begun to recover.

early fifteenth century, the newly established Ming Dynasty commanded seven great naval expeditions that went through all the coasts of the Indian Ocean to Mozambique, which have excited the imagination of writers Uchrony . In 1433 the Ming decided it was OK chorraditas maritime expeditions ended and left the large fleet rots. The historian Arnold J. Toynbee gave an explanation of why that might occur in China and could never happen in Europe. China was unified under one emperor, which will determined the grand strategy of the empire. If the emperor and his ministers had adopted a policy, there was no turning back. Europe, however, was divided. A state that ceased to test a potentially useful policy, I was just giving way to another state so that put an entrepreneur into practice. One example is when Portugal did not accept the plans of Columbus to find a western route to the Indies. Columbus crossed the border and simply offered his plan to Castile.

André Gunder Frank said it was the discovery of America and its wealth that gave the Europeans behind the silver needed to be introduced in Asian trade networks were focused on China and, finally, take the lead. Morris believes that geography made it almost inevitable that they were the Europeans who discovered America and not Asians. The Atlantic is smaller than the Pacific, has winds and currents that favor the middle passage and islands of the Azores or the Canaries, which serve as scales. Moreover, the Europeans had in the fifteenth century to explore other economic incentives Asian regions, swam in abundance, they were not. One of the incentives, so important was the Ottoman Empire with the conquest of Constantinople and the Mamluk Empire in Egypt became almost inevitable intermediary between Europe and the riches of Asia. The Silk Road and sea routes of the Indian who took either the Gulf or the Red Sea flowed into territories controlled by the Ottomans. Europe needed new routes to link with Asia. Portugal sought outlining the Asia and the sought Castilla heading west and turning face to face with America.

The

XVI and XVII centuries were centuries of growth in East and West, but more in the second. The Scientific Revolution and plunder the wealth in America helped to close the gap with East West. The seventeenth century was a century of crisis across Eurasia, Central Europe was devastated by the Thirty Years War in China Ming dynasty fell and was replaced by the Manchu invaders who established, in India the Mughal Empire began its decline. However, social development indices did not fall and early eighteenth century in the East and West had reached 43 points, the same levels they were when the Roman Empire began to decline and have and when East and West declined in the fourteenth century.

Morris thinks about the 45 points of development is a ceiling over an agricultural empire whose energy forces are the human and animal and some of the wind and the water can not break. It is an ecological bottleneck, which poses a Roman Empire or the Han Empire can not solve. East and West have seen a crisis like I and XIV centuries, if there had been no industrial revolution, which changed the game by providing tools for companies that had hitherto not been available.

The eighteenth century was the century in which Western regained the lead. There was a technological revolution. Steppe frontier was closed. The sedentary group had developed new weapons, cannons and guns, the cavalry against the nomads could not compete. For the first time in history stopped the barbarians threaten the sedentary empires of Eurasia. He had developed an Atlantic economy, which did not exist during the crisis of the ages I and XIV.

East Morris estimates that by itself could have perhaps invent the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century. If the West, and more specifically England, he was advanced by a number of factors. The first is the labor shortage in the West. The population density was lower in the West and the Europeans always have the possibility to go to the colonies. The result is that labor was far more expensive than in the East. There was thus a very important incentive to find ways to produce with less labor. England had plenty of coal and also had it in very convenient locations: near the iron mines and large populations that would be ideal sites for the first factories. The colonies provided a captive market that would absorb any product that they send. And finally, the West, especially England, had developed financial markets, any producer who would brave enough to try a new machine at his disposal all the money he wanted, provided it could convince investors of the project's sustainability.

industrialization, coupled with enhanced communications that made the world smaller, caused no only since the eighteenth century (1721 to be precise, following the detailed accounts of Morris) West ahead of the East but the West to become the lord of the planet.

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West (for now)? (2) Why send

West began

career advantage, not because Westerners were smarter, but because the original kernel West was much more favored in terms of natural resources than the other six regions where it was developed agriculture. Of the 56 species of plants with larger and more nutritious grains, which are domesticated, 32 grew wild in the western nucleus, in East Asia, only six. Another advantage: moving from wild to domestic wheat wheat only required a mutation. Skip the ancestor of maize, a plant of small hard grains, corn today, took several dozen. Of the 14 mammal species have domesticated, 7 living in the wild in the western nucleus, compared with 5 in East Asia. Of the five most important domestic animals (sheep, goat, cow, pig and horse), only the horse was not in the fertile crescent. With these advantages, it is not unusual that the West take the lead, nor assume that the East is a worthy second place. Compared with, for example New Guinea, which lacks domesticated mammals, East also had a comparative advantage, although not as big as the West.

way Morris has a vision of history: all mankind is under pressure from the weather and geography and all mankind is moved by the same imperatives (greed, laziness and fear .) Consequently, progress leads us all on the same path. What are the rates differ. Take the Neolithic. Both East and West reached the following milestones: domestication of the dog, domestication of plants, construction of big temples, construction of defensive fortifications, domestication of animals, human sacrifice, intensive agriculture, invention of pottery, creating large human settlements lavish burial (indicating the beginnings of social differentiation). Varied the order and time in which these milestones were reached. Usually, but not always, reached the West, 2,000 years earlier than the East, but both overtook them. Morris does not mention it, but it is expected that this pattern will recur in the other five regions where agriculture was developed independently.

The first states began to appear in the West in the fourth millennium. The cooling that occurred from 3800 BC meant that decreased rainfall in Mesopotamia and became more irregular. Emigration was not an option because the fertile crescent was already overcrowded. The Mesopotamian cities chose to congregate and cooperate to build large irrigation systems. This implies a greater social division and the birth of writing, a necessity in a society that had become more complicated. A phenomenon similar occurred in the Nile Valley, which was also affected by changes in rainfall patterns. For the 2,500 both the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia had been unified by two great empires, that of the pharaohs and the Akkadians. And yet, by the end of the third millennium, the West had capsized.

chaos This period coincided with a period of drought that led to the extreme western societies. Divine kingship system created by the pharaohs and Mesopotamian Sargon dynasty no longer sufficient to handle more complex societies that were in crisis. The priests and nobles and kings did not obey. Migration caused by a drier climate, came to complicate the situation. The result was the fragmentation of both regions in several states.

However, all of these conditions do not hurt the growth of the West, as measured by Morris in 2000 BC, the degree of social development of the West was 50% higher than who had been in 3000 BC Morris attributes it to the West has expanded to a new periphery. The peoples who inhabited the periphery had an advantage against those who had horses Egyptian and Mesopotamian were ill-prepared. Thus the second millennium saw the rise of the Humans, the Hittites and the Hyksos. He also saw the growing importance of trade. Suddenly the Mediterranean Sea, recently joined the Western core asset became a key geographical and live near large rivers lost relative.

Meanwhile China had entered the Neolithic Age of 2,000 years late day or so, with respect to the West. Between 2,500 and 2,000 BC started the proto-states emerge, in which the ancient shamans had managed to become in the ruling elites. Between 1900 and 1700 came the first real city, Erlitou. Archaeologists debate whether it could have been the capital of semi-mythical Xia Dynasty. As in Mesopotamia, Erlitou also had its problems with neighboring barbarians, the Shang, who eventually defeated at the 1,600 and began to expand using the most refined methods Erlitou was developed first. The shang in their own way and independently replicated the divine dynasties system perfected by the Egyptians and Mesopotamians.

By 1250 West had reached the 34 social development points three times in 5,000 BC The Egyptian energy and Mesopotamian average was about 20,000 calories a day. The largest cities had populations of about 80,000 inhabitants. There was a large class of scribes. The greatest empires armies could deploy up to a thousand chariots. And then there was the invasion of the Sea Peoples, which resulted in epidemics and large population movements. The Hittite empire disappeared, Egypt lost its possessions in Asia and retreated to Africa where the country ended fragment. Assyria was plunged into darkness. For 1000 the social development of the West had retreated levels in which he was 600 years earlier. West would need 500 years to recover 24 points of social development that had been in 1300. To date there is a clear explanation of what it was that launched the invasions of the Sea Peoples, but Morris was suspected of an episode of climate change behind, plus a law that defines it this way: "The paradox of development social development-the tendency to generate the same forces that weaken, more cores means that create more problems for themselves. " For optimists Morris has one consolation: larger and more complex societies are also able to answer more effective and refined to the problems they face.

headaches the Sea Peoples were the Egyptians and Mesopotamians were the zhou in China's north that were given to the shang. Zhou brought the new technology of chariots and his victory was due to a combination of powerful armies and the division of shang. But the replacement of by shang zhou was not accompanied by any collapse in the East. This would help close the gap with East West. Instead of a 2,000-year delay, the delay now would be measured in a few hundreds of years.

Both West and East grew during the first millennium BC In the 700 West surpassed the barrier of 24 points and did the 500 East. For the first century BC, the West had overcome the barrier of 35 points and East was not far behind. Morris said that both achieved a high degree of social development without further collapse, because they changed strategy, both opted for the creation of organized states rather lax States that had existed before. This new model required a more centralized state, a bureaucracy, a standing army ... It is a state model that requires many more resources, but also a model capable of generating much more revenue. The lax state model is based on feudal and decentralized structures. It is inexpensive, but very productive and is inherently unstable, since much depends on individuals.

early AD West was unified under the Roman Empire and East under the Han empire began in both empires timidly experimenting with new energy sources: coal, natural gas, water and wind. Since 200 BC, the Earth had entered a warm period milder winters, which made it more productive agriculture in places as varied as England, France and Manchuria. Took place then the first indirect contact between Rome and China.

And when everything seemed to be going well, you fucked the invention. Between AD 200 and 500 degree temperatures dropped. There were repeated epidemics in Rome and China, that Morris attributed to that among the things they exchanged when they came into contact, the microbes were specific to each region. And to top it off, came the barbarians, who were stripping of cold in northern latitudes and sought saqueables cozy. Both East and West returned a more liberal states, less complex economies and societies that are less refined.